SIMOUN SAYS: Can Gilas Beat New Zealand? Bilog ang Bola!
Question: What do Iran, Jordan, Latvia, and China have in common?
Don’t worry, I’m not about to turn this column into a political bonanza. What I just rattled off is a list of national teams that Gilas has defeated over the past 12 months. On Thursday, Tim Cone’s crew can add New Zealand to our ever-growing portfolio—a passport with stamps, if you will.
Since the Tall Blacks crossed paths with Gilas as part of the 2017 FIBA Asia-Oceania expansion, they’ve been a tough nut to crack for our native hoopers. In tournaments like the FIBA Asia Cup and World Cup Asian Qualifiers, New Zealand has walloped the Philippines by an average margin of 29.3 points. The “closest” encounter was a 92-75 victory by NZ over the likes of Kiefer Ravena (who finished with 17 points), Bobby Ray Parks Jr., and Carl Tamayo.
The numbers don’t bode well for the hopes of Pinoy basketball fans, who are hoping that Gilas will secure their spot in the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup as soon as possible. But you know what? Our longstanding adage will never, ever be untrue: Bilog ang bola.
There’s no such thing as an invincible team, and as long as we put the work in, the chances of beating a highly-ranked squad will remain alive. Here’s what we can do to maximize our strengths, mitigate NZ’s best assets, and hopefully snatch the W at the Mall of Asia Arena.
Respect New Zealand’s Shooters
News flash: The Tall Blacks do not have a significant size advantage over Gilas.
If you look up the individual heights of the 13 players announced on the Basketball New Zealand site, you’ll find that the average height of their November roster is 6-foot-5. Do the math for the 11 available players that we have—that is, not counting those on the injury list and Ange Kouame, who’s probably not going to take Justin Brownlee’s spot—and you have an average height of 6-foot-5 as well.
While the likeness in the tale of the tape is a refreshing sight, there’s no way that our guards and wings can be complacent, given the prolific scoring skills of New Zealand from positions one through three. On Thursday, the Tall Blacks’ offense will be bannered by Corey Webster and Izayah Le’Afa, two spitfire guards who can effortlessly pull up from distance.
Chris Newsome, CJ Perez, and Scottie Thompson need to invade these guards’ airspace as soon as they cross halfcourt—heck, maybe even before the inbound pass—or we’ll be in for a long night. Ditto for shot-makers Flynn Cameron, Taylor Britt, and Walter Brown, all of whom suited up for New Zealand at the 2023 FIBA World Cup.
The lack of a height advantage on New Zealand’s part suggests that Gilas shouldn’t overhelp on ball handlers driving to the paint. Our defenders need to stay in front of their man as best as they can, so that the defense doesn’t have to break down and lead to open shooters on the perimeter.
Of course, New Zealand can still create favorable situations through ball screen action. To ensure that we won’t yield the mismatch too often, perhaps our bigs can hedge out on NZ’s ball handlers and buy some time for the initial defender to get back in position—instead of outright switching and allowing the likes of Webster and Le’Afa to gain a speed advantage.
Capitalize on the Frontcourt’s Experience
As I read the news release on Basketball New Zealand, one particularly candid sentence caught my eye: “If the guard line has the experience, the front court is an exciting collection of young talent…”
Interesting.
Apparently, the towering trio of Sam Mennenga, Sam Waardenburg, and Tyrell Harrison is aged 25 and below (with Mennenga being the youngest at 22). While I am certainly not equating youth with a dearth of talent, the number of birthday cakes blown has to count for something in the complex environment that is international basketball. More often than not in this sport, age and maturity come into play—and Gilas should find ways to exploit this on Thursday.
I’m specifically looking at 36-year-old Justin Brownlee and 37-year-old Japeth Aguilar to bust out tricks like deceptive footwork and a sixth sense on help defense. Honestly, if I see Brownlee “pull the chair” from behind one of these young NZ bigs, I’ll be a happy man.
Plus, how can we forget a 35-year-old Kraken whose advancement in age doesn’t appear to hinder his accumulation of lofty accolades?
Over the past few years, June Mar Fajardo has gotten better at translating his multi-awarded PBA persona—we’re at eight MVPs now, aren’t we?—into a reliable cog of the national team. Among our seasoned bigs, I’m expecting Fajardo to be the smartest player in the shaded lane, dishing timely passes to open shooters and displaying patience that you just can’t teach.
But hey, if our young stretch bigs Tamayo and Mason Amos decide to show up, that wouldn’t hurt in the slightest.
Leave No Doubt About Chemistry
I’m pretty sure that Tim Cone and his brilliant staff are well aware that the Tall Blacks are fielding a new head coach. After earning his stripes in both the Australian and New Zealand NBL, Judd Flavell has taken over the reins of the no. 22 ranked men’s basketball team in the world. (Flavell, by the way, played for the New Zealand squad that placed fourth in the 2002 FIBA World Championships. The coach of that team: Tab Baldwin.)
Why am I talking about NZ’s head coach at this point? I have no earthly idea what his Xs and Os will be, but I did note his assessment of the Tall Blacks’ roster.
“Our opportunities together in the black singlet are becoming more frequent in Asia with the many FIBA windows, but shorter in time with the days of 4-to-6-week tours now a thing of the past,” Flavell told Basketball New Zealand. “That puts a premium on cohesion, [which must] become a superpower of New Zealand basketball.”
Cohesion, huh?
Flavell might be referring to the fact that his roster for Thursday is essentially a brand-new team that hasn’t had a ton of time together. In contrast, Gilas is fielding nine out of the 12 core players that Cone identified back in January, when he was first announced as the new Gilas head coach.
To me, this means that Gilas is at least one step ahead of New Zealand in terms of chemistry. I expect, therefore, our Pinoy cagers to be sharper in terms of executing offensive sets and coordinating defensive schemes. At the international level, cohesion—as Flavell puts it—could spell the difference between a team left scratching their heads and a squad raising their arms in victory.
So, can Gilas beat New Zealand on November 21?
Simoun says: Pwede. May paraan. Bilog ang bola.
By the Numbers
6
The number of long-distance shots made by Gerry Abadiano in UP’s 86-78 victory over FEU last Saturday. For the first time this season, Abadiano—who torched the nets with a 50% shooting clip from beyond the arc—truly showed up for the Fighting Maroons on the offensive end. Can UP’s team captain keep up this fiery performance against UE at the end of the elims and UST in the Final Four?
790
The number of days that have passed since the PBA’s approval of the three-team Troy Rosario trade was announced. That converts to roughly two years and two months. Are we expected, then, to assume that time would heal all wounds and that free agent Rosario would contemplate returning to TNT? Seriously, I don’t blame Rosario for not signing a new contract with the team that dealt him away. And I’m not the least bit surprised at the rumors that he’s switching camps.
Tweet of the Week
The PG version:
The not-so-PG version:
Never change, Coach Charles. And for the record, that was a foul. Forward motion, I think it’s called.
