A Data-Driven Forecast of What’s Ahead for Gilas Pilipinas

In the post-game press conference following Gilas’ near-comeback against New Zealand in the recent FIBA World Cup Asian Qualifiers, head coach Tim Cone praised the impact of AJ Edu and Quentin Millora-Brown, pointing to their performance as a bright spot in what was another tough loss against the Tall Blacks.

“I want to focus on our big guys, who I thought played well, especially AJ and Q. They battled their [New Zealand’s] big guys really well,” he said.

And that couldn’t have been closer to the truth. 

Using a stat called Player Impact Estimate (PIE), a player’s overall contribution to a game can be measured, reflecting their impact on both offense and defense.

Edu and Millora-Brown recorded the highest PIE ratings among Gilas players in their games against New Zealand and Australia, ranking first and second, respectively.

With their relentless effort on both ends—contesting shots, fighting for rebounds, and scoring tough buckets—people shouldn’t act surprised.

However, despite these strong performances, the national squad couldn’t secure a victory. Now the question is: how can they resolve it?

It just felt like something was missing—something big.

Being one of the most touted faces in Philippine basketball for a while now, Kai Sotto has brought pride to the homeland on the international stage. 

However, due to an ACL injury last year while playing in a Japan B. League game, followed by his ensuing recovery process, the 7-foot-3 center has yet to suit up in a Gilas jersey as of late, and the loss still stings to this day.

In the 4-game winning stretch in the FIBA Asia Cup 2025 Qualifiers, during which Sotto last played, the Kaiju posted a PIE rating of 14%, second only to Justin Brownlee.

For context, a PIE rating of 15% or higher indicates a player has made a significant impact on a game. Players who maintain this level of performance are considered elite, and although Sotto falls just 1% short, he’s clearly lurking right beneath the surface.

Ever since then, Gilas has lost 7 of 11 FIBA games without the Kaiju, and people don’t even need a PIE rating to see how much his presence is missed.

To put this into perspective, Gilas’ net rating drops to -19.38 without Sotto in the recent matchups against New Zealand and Australia. During the 4-game winning streak in the FIBA Asia Cup 2025 Qualifiers, the team’s net rating was 41.08.

As of now, Sotto is back on track, recently putting up monster numbers in the Japan B. League, getting his reps in as he appears to be preparing for another shot at his NBA dream.

With a Gilas return looming just around the corner, Filipino fans are eager to see the big man back on the court. They have long seen Sotto and Edu anchor the rim protection for Gilas, and with Millora-Brown now added to the mix, the national team’s frontcourt looks even more promising.

Due to professional team commitments and injuries, Sotto and Edu have not shared the court for an extended period, with their last appearance together coming at the 2023 FIBA World Cup. 

The duo was clearly missed, as their upside as frontcourt partners was evident in their limited minutes together during Gilas’ win over China in the national team’s final game—their only victory of the tournament.

In that outing, they posted a +8.34 net rating while on the floor, largely driven by their ability to stabilize Gilas on both ends, providing efficient offense while anchoring the defense.

The team often utilized Sotto as the primary roll threat in pick-and-roll actions, where his touch and length allowed him to finish through contact while drawing defensive attention. Edu typically spaced to the wing but was more effective when cutting to the low block or dunker’s spot, where Sotto’s passing and decision-making could connect for easy finishes or create kick-out opportunities for open shooters.

Very similarly, a comparable pattern emerged when Edu and Millora-Brown shared the floor in the closing minutes of Gilas’ game against New Zealand last month. 

Prior to the 5:35 mark of the fourth quarter, the two had not played together until head coach Tim Cone made the strategic adjustment. 

Down 55-63, the frontcourt held it down defensively for the national squad, sparking a late comeback push and holding the Tall Blacks to just six points in that stretch while the team scored 11. 

Millora-Brown filled the gap as the main pick-and-roll option, usually stationed at the top of the key, while Edu stayed in the corner or down low.

Though they ultimately fell short, the promise and potential are clear. In a modern game that values extra possessions, defensive pressure, and offensive flow, using bigs in roles where they can consistently impact both ends could be a hidden advantage Gilas has yet to fully unlock.

With Sotto and Millora-Brown as the main pick-and-roll guys and Edu operating down low, it may be a simple but effective formula the national team can lean into.

The potential addition of Mike Phillips could give Gilas another Edu-type presence, as the UAAP champion is known for his high energy and athleticism– making defensive plays, finishing strong at the rim, and running the floor with constant effort.

Over the past five seasons, Mike Phillips has been a name to remember in the UAAP, especially for La Salle fans. The 6-foot-8 forward is in the conversation for legend status, having won two championships, earned a spot on the Elite Team three times, and claimed Finals MVP honors in his final season.

Just recently, the Samahang Basketbol ng Pilipinas revealed that FIBA has given Phillips local status, clearing him to compete as a local in all FIBA tournaments.

The UAAP champion has suited up for the national team before, being part of the squad that struck gold at the 32nd Southeast Asian Games.

But FIBA is a different ball game.

Nonetheless, by examining how fellow UAAP stars have transitioned to the FIBA scene, fans can get a good sense of what to expect when Phillips earns a call to the lineup.

Being a UAAP Finals MVP carries significant weight. It means staying consistent throughout the season, helping your team reach the Final Four, and showing up when it matters most—earning the crown on the biggest stage.

With that in mind, Phillips posted an 11% PIE rating during that championship run in Season 88, showing that the numbers back up the awards.

His Gilas counterparts—La Salle teammate Kevin Quiambao and frontcourt partner Millora-Brown—also had impressive campaigns in their final seasons, posting PIE ratings of 13% and 7%, respectively.

Millora-Brown put in work against New Zealand and Australia. Quiambao, meanwhile, had a pair of standout games—including a 17-point outburst in Gilas’ overtime win over Saudi Arabia during the FIBA Asia Cup 2025—posting a PIE rating of 9%, a glimpse of what his peak performance looks like.

With what looks like a trend of UAAP standouts seamlessly transitioning to the FIBA level and delivering, Phillips is shaping up to be the next key impact player for Gilas.

There haven’t been any announcements regarding changes to the national program, but one thing is certain—this potential is all in front of them, and they shouldn’t mess it up.

Building on the emphasis made earlier on how the potential frontcourt could work together, here are some interesting lineups head coach Tim Cone could deploy.

Thompson-Ramos-Brownlee-Edu-Sotto

Probably the most stable lineup, featuring Thompson at point guard, with Brownlee and Ramos as the main scoring options. Their gravity creates more space for the frontcourt, allowing Kai and Edu to complement them effectively.

Newsome-Perez-Quiambao-Phillips-Millora-Brown

Likely a second-unit type of lineup, but one that can generate a strong spark when it clicks. Newsome can act as the stabilizer, while Perez has recently stepped up as a real scoring threat, providing offensive pressure. Quiambao’s wing activity is paired with a solid frontcourt in Millora-Brown and an energetic presence in Mike Phillips.

Ramos-Brownlee-Quiambao/Tamayo-Edu-Sotto/Millora-Brown

This hypothetical lineup is an interesting one to experiment with, having no traditional point guard but instead relying on scorers in Ramos and Brownlee, alongside a talented wing in Quiambao or even Tamayo, who has the versatility to play the wing despite being labeled a big. The frontcourt is anchored by Sotto, who can alternate between being the primary pick-and-roll option or a low-post presence, complemented by either Edu or Millora-Brown.