How Far Will Gilas Go In The 2025 FIBA Asia Cup?
When Gilas Pilipinas head coach Tim Cone was asked about his vision for the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup, he gave an answer that’s more cut and dried than a canyon in the Arabian Desert.
“Our goal is a gold medal,” Cone said after Gilas pulled off a 103-98 comeback victory over the Macau Black Bears. “We’re going to go out there to try to win a gold medal.”
The question, of course, is whether the current iteration of Gilas can make it far enough in the 16-team tournament to reach the oasis of championship glory. To get there, our national squad will have to withstand the arid heat of deadly shooters and massive adversaries.
Three years ago, when the FIBA Asia Cup was last staged, our Gilas boys won just one of four outings—a 101-59 thrashing of India. That Gilas was a mishmash of college players, past and present PBA vets, Japan- and Korea-based cagers, and whatever Francis Lopez was at that time. The point I’m trying to make is: Our national team was most certainly not the frontrunner for Best in Team Chemistry in 2022.
Thankfully, that’s no longer an issue this time around. Whether Pinoy fans like it or not, Cone’s tactic of a long-term core group is still going strong, ensuring continuity in offensive and defensive execution, tournament after tournament. Sure, our national team is still a halo-halo made with local and overseas ingredients, but the hardcourt flavor has become more consistent.
So, how realistic are our chances of seeing the fulfillment of CTC’s golden vision? To answer this, let’s take a look at the field of competition in Saudi Arabia and how we stack up against them.
Who Is Playing for Gilas in the FIBA Asia Cup?
Oh, how I wish we had Kai Sotto all day, every day, twice on Sundays. Alas, we can’t always have nice things in this world, so let’s get to the lineup that we do have as we compete against our Group D opponents (Chinese Taipei, New Zealand, Iraq).
In this year’s FIBA Asia Cup, our frontcourt will be fortified by Justin Brownlee, AJ Edu, June Mar Fajardo, Japeth Aguilar and Sotto’s former high school rival Carl Tamayo. They’ll be joined by Calvin Oftana, Kevin Quiambao, and Jamie Malonzo, three vastly different options at the small forward position.
Meanwhile, the backcourt will consist of Scottie Thompson, Chris Newsome, Dwight Ramos, and CJ Perez. While Ramos is the closest thing we have to a knockdown shooter—and even he fluctuates in terms of shooting efficiency at times—these guards are all versatile shot-makers who are particularly deadly in the open court.
If I had to guess, the trio of Brownlee, Thompson, and Ramos will be mainstays of the starting lineup throughout the tournament. While tactical adjustments will certainly influence Tim Cone’s rotations, I’m curious to see what Quiambao can do as a starter. Good luck to other teams trying to scout this playmaking wizard.
READ:
How Does Gilas Stack Up Against The Rest of Group D?
Chinese Taipei
What to watch out for: The Hinton brothers. Even as we eat our hearts out with Quentin Millora-Brown reportedly being classified as a naturalized citizen, Adam and Robert Hinton have been given the go signal to play for Chinese Taipei as locals. Hay buhay.
The Cornell star and the four-star Harvard recruit, respectively, bring length, athleticism, and solid perimeter shooting to a basketball program renowned for outside snipers. They’d be a great fit next to Chun Hsiang Lu, Ting-Chien Lin, and Chien Hao-Ma, who torched the nets when Chinese Taipei defeated Gilas 91-84 in the February 2025 window of the FIBA Asia Cup qualifiers.
Our best bet against them: Maximize single coverage to contain the Hinton bros. Crowding either Adam or Robert will inevitably lead to a lethal Chinese Taipei shooter who’s wide open from beyond the arc. Plus, AJ Edu will have to keep naturalized player Brandon Gilbeck off the offensive glass.
Can Gilas get this win? Yes. The boys are itching to avenge that loss this past February, which was Chinese Taipei’s first win over the Philippines in nine years. This extra dose of motivation will be a guiding force as Gilas looks to contain the firepower of their foes from East Asia.
New Zealand
What to watch out for: Another intelligently crafted game plan to stop Gilas in its tracks. That’s the setback of a limited pool: Other teams get to become rather familiar with the players that Gilas is likely to field.
In his first year as head coach of New Zealand’s national team, Judd Flavell has demonstrated his strategic acumen by dismantling the Pinoys 87-70 back in February. Wanting to avenge their upset loss to Gilas in November 2024, the Tall Blacks outmuscled and outwitted our boys in Auckland, feasting on pick-and-pops and repeatedly torturing June Mar Fajardo’s drop coverage.
Dynamic playmakers Taylor Britt and Flynn Cameron have been confirmed to join New Zealand’s FIBA Asia Cup lineup, along with sharpshooting big man Tohi Smith-Milner, who went off for 28 points on 50% shooting from deep in the February matchup. Smith-Milner will be joined in the frontcourt by the debuting Jack Andrew, an agile 6-foot-10 giant with a soft touch.
Our best bet against them: Play huge lineups that facilitate switching defense—I’m iffy with going small ball against New Zealand—and be wary of shooters coming off screens. The likes of Scottie Thompson, Chris Newsome, and CJ Perez will have to fight through picks instead of going under them. Giving the Kiwis even a sliver of space will only embolden them to convert from distance.
Can Gilas get this win? I’m bracing for a loss in this one. Kai Sotto’s absence is most pronounced when Gilas goes up against massive teams. The size and skill level of the Tall Blacks is, well, a tall task for our national squad to deal with. (But hey, like I said nine months ago, bilog ang bola.)
Iraq
What to watch out for: An upset win. There’s no doubt that Gilas is the favorite heading into this Aug. 9 matchup but, lest we forget, our national team has been David slaying a bunch of Goliaths over the past decade. Gilas, then, needs to have the right amount of focus and respect when they go up against the Iraqi squad.
Of late, Iraq has been led by their naturalized player Demario Mayfield, a 6-foot-2 guard who ranked third in assists during the FIBA Asia Cup qualifiers. Another Iraqi standout during the qualifying games was Ihab Al-Zuhairi, a 6-foot-10 center who averaged 12.3 points and 7.8 rebounds.
Our best bet against them: Force Iraq to shoot from outside. This team made just 25.0% of their three-point attempts during the FIBA Asia Cup qualifiers and, unless they’re hiding some perimeter threats somewhere in their national team pool, they’ll probably shoot somewhere around this benchmark in Saudi Arabia.
Can Gilas get this win? Yessir!
Who Is Waiting for Gilas Beyond the Preliminary Round?
I’m projecting that Gilas will finish the prelims with a 2-1 record, which would be good for second in Group D while New Zealand secures the first-place finish.
As per the FIBA Asia Cup format (which you can find here), Gilas would be matched up against the third-ranked team in Group C in the playoffs for the last quarterfinal spots. In my estimation, either China or Jordan will lock up the no. 1 spot in Group C. Between India and Saudi Arabia, I’d say India is more likely to finish third in this group. Though India has made strides in recent years, our Gilas squad should still be able to turn them back.
This would set up a quarterfinal duel with the team that clinches the top seed in Group B: Iran, Guam, Japan, and Syria. Be warned, folks: The Hamed Haddadi era might be over, but there’s a new wave of hoops excellence emerging right now in Iran. During the FIBA Asia Cup qualifiers, this team led all nations in field goal percentage and finished fifth in efficiency. At the forefront of the Iranian national team are 6-foot-5 Matin Aghajanpour and 6-foot-7 Mohammad Amini.
If Gilas somehow finds a way to overcome Iran, they’ll find themselves in the final four of this tournament. Australia, the favorite to win Group A, will be on our semifinal bracket while New Zealand—poetically enough—would probably win their side of the semis to clinch a spot in the championship game.
So, how far will Gilas go in the 2025 FIBA Asia Cup?
Given the absence of Sotto and the injuries to players like Oftana and Aguilar, I predict that Gilas will go as far as the quarterfinals, where they’ll be served a harsh dose of reality by Iran.
