4-Point Shot Steals Spotlight in PBA’s Opening Thriller
Photo sources: PBA Images, Magnolia Hotshots
It didn’t take long for the PBA’s much-discussed new 4-point shot to play a pivotal role in determining a competitive game between championship contenders.
The 49th season of Asia’s oldest basketball league opened its Governors’ Cup conference on Sunday, August 18, with a new wrinkle that has the potential to spice up the competitive flow from what we’ve grown accustomed to over the years.
Magnolia, spearheaded by a new import in former NBA dunk champion Glenn Robinson, had the unique opportunity to win their first game against Meralco despite being down 3 with the game clock in the final seconds. He pulled up from beyond 27-feet. It clanked. But the decision-making from both teams on the floor might be a preview of what’s to come.
Meralco’s instruction was for Chris Newsome, Robinson’s defender, to foul. It makes sense from a mathematical perspective. With the new 4-point shot, Meralco’s 3-point lead isn’t as safe as it would have been before. If Robinson was fouled, he would have gone to the free throw line for two freebies because Meralco was in the penalty. Even if he made both charities, the Bolts would still have a one-point lead, which is an appealing proposition over the possibility of a made 4-point basket and a one-point deficit.
But Newsome did not foul Robinson. Even a veteran who’s been in the PBA for nearly a decade had a double take, fearing that he could send the Magnolia recruit to the free throw line for four freebies if he committed the foul as Robinson attempted his 4-point shot.
The decision did not backfire on Newsome, although the opposite could take place in the future to him and other players in similar situations.
“Just the fact that he’s behind that 4-point line, that changes the strategy a little bit. Those points of the game you really have to be careful of what you do and how you execute it,” the reigning Finals MVP told ALL-STAR.
“That is my bad, that is on me to be able to follow through on what the coaches wanted because if he makes that shot that’s definitely a backbreaker. That’s my responsibility. I take ownership for that especially as a team captain, team leader.”
From a larger perspective, it’s indicative of how it’s only a matter of time before an important game is determined by this new shot which previously had only been used by the league in its All-Star games.
“[If] we’re up by 2, they foul, then you make both, and you’re up by 4, they can still come back,” Meralco head coach Luigi Trillo explained of a possible late-game instance.
“It gives you options when [in a] two-to-three possession game. You can go for a quick 4 and stuff. It changes the game completely. That’s how we broke their back. We hit a couple of 4-point shots. We were 40% from 4. It’s something teams will have to see.”
A total of 182 field goals were attempted during Sunday’s game. Only 10 (5.5%) of those were from 4-point range. Meralco was 2-of-5 while Magnolia went 1-of-5. Chris Banchero became the first player in PBA history to knock one down early in the second quarter. Jolo Mendoza, who had a crazy-efficient 15 points on 4-of-4 total shooting, hit the next, then Paul Lee knocked one in during the third quarter when the Bolts were close to blowing the contest wide open. He turned a threatening 14-point deficit to a more manageable 10-point hole.
Meralco made one more 4-pointer than Magnolia did. That 4-point shot would have counted as a 3 prior to this season. Although there are a lot of variables that go into determining a basketball game, from a numbers’ perspective that extra point made the difference of a two and three-point lead for the reigning champions down the stretch. In that case Robinson, who admitted to reporters that he wanted to go for the win, could have taken either a 2-pointer to tie or a 3-pointer or 4-pointer to win, adding further complexity to the defensive strategy Newsome would have had to make.
Like it did for 3-pointers against midrange shots just years ago, this 4-pointer will warrant analytics-related queries. For example: making 40% (4) out of 10 4-pointers yields 16 points. It’s better than knocking down 50% (5) out of 10 3-pointers (15 points), and just as efficient as converting 80% (8) out of 10 midrange baskets (16 points).
Of course, there are factors to consider. For starters, a contested 4-point shot is more difficult than a contested floater near the rim. In some occasions you’re going to have to take what the defense gives you. Because of the math, however, the former provides a bigger margin for error in scoring compared to the latter.
The 4-point shot isn’t a remarkable trendsetter quite yet with PBA coaches, players, and fans. It took the 3-point shot years to become the monster it is now – and the occasional generational shooters – and the PBA, assuming the 4-point plan sticks long-term, will likely follow a similar trajectory. One aspect that will speed it up is if it further plays a role in determining outcomes, such as on opening night.
“It’s definitely going to highlight basketball IQ a lot more, because now more than ever you [have to] know situations and scenarios and I think that’s what it all really comes down to,” Newsome said.
“It’s just another shot, yes, but if you don’t understand the scenarios and how to use that or shot or what that shot can potentially lead to, then you’re going to be left in the dust.”
