NSAC: Which Team Will Walk Away as Champions?

In college basketball, there’s a different tension in the air when you hear the words “Final Four.”

This year, 16 teams entered the Asiabasket NSAC with the hopes of building team chemistry and cementing winning ways. Under the campus tour format, they waged war across six venues loaded with collegiate history, not to mention devoted fans of “home” and “away” teams alike.

Now, only four squads are left standing. Forget about preseason: This is pretty serious.

With the NSAC semifinals and title match happening 24 hours apart this weekend, which team will have their crowning moment as Asiabasket champions? Let’s take a look at the Final Four matchups.

DLSU Green Archers vs. UST Growling Tigers

Heading into UAAP Season 89, I’d say seven out of eight teams are reeling from the loss of key pieces.* Seriously, how do you replace Mike Phillips, Nic Cabañero, Forthsky Padrigao, and Kyle Paranada?

The answer is, you don’t. Instead, you cultivate new stars and maximize their distinct skill sets.

Arrows Up for the Champs

When DLSU took on FEU in that thrilling quarterfinal matchup on May 23, the Green Archers’ depth was in full display once again. As La Salle fans felt the jitters inside the Enrique M. Razon Sports Center, the Archers’ backcourt remained cool under pressure, with Earl Abadam crashing the offensive glass and Doy Dungo making huge baskets in crunchtime.

Abadam and Dungo set the stage for Jacob Cortez to hit those free throws that sealed La Salle’s comeback victory, but they wouldn’t have gotten to that point if JC Macalalag hadn’t waxed hot. Macalalag’s 12 points on 50.0% FG shooting (including 40.0% from deep) is a reminder that the Archers will make teams pay if their defensive coverage dwells too much on the Cool Cub.

I’m not sure what’s a crazier stat: the fact that there are no Green Archers in the top 10 of this tournament’s scoring leaders, or the fact that there are three DLSU players in the top 10 of Index of Success, an advanced metric that indicates a player’s contributions to team wins. Cortez made the cut, and so did Luis Pablo and Mason Amos, two versatile forwards who make timely contributions on both ends of the floor.

It will be a multifaceted La Salle squad, then, that’ll walk into the Blue Eagle Gym this Saturday with the do-or-die mentality that UAAP champions possess. Staring right across the gym with zero signs of intimidation: a team that hung a loss on La Salle in Season 88.

Tigers on the Hunt

Last year, UAAP fans watched in awe as Collins Akowe made grown men look like elementary school pupils as he dominated the paint. Though Akowe deserves plenty of credit for the Growling Tigers’ first winning record in six years, he didn’t do it alone. Kyle Paranada was a lethal combo guard, Forthsky Padrigao was dishing assists that made his teammates’ lives easier, and Nic Cabañero was an impeccable three-level scorer.

That’s three key pieces that Akowe won’t be playing with in September. Thankfully, he still has Mark Llemit. The homegrown stalwart from the Tiger Cubs program has emerged as UST’s best shot-maker this summer, hitting clutch baskets and shooting efficiently despite the increase in his volume of attempts. Llemit, in fact, is no. 7 in field goal percentage in this year’s NSAC tournament.

How about another key piece to make up a new Big Three in España? Gelo Crisostomo had a breakout season last year in the UAAP, and he has carried over that momentum to the NSAC, ranking no. 5 in rebounds with 8.7 boards per game. Did you see his beautiful up-and-under move down the stretch of that UST-Ateneo thriller?

Then again, there’s no need to settle for a Big Three when you can have a Fantastic Four. Amiel Acido, another walking mismatch with the tools to punish smaller guards, has the sixth best Index of Success among all players in this tournament. Translation: When the former NCAA Juniors MVP is on the floor, UST tends to be in a better position to win.

*In my opinion, FEU is the one team that isn’t significantly rocked by the loss of star power from Season 88. That squad coming out of Morayta this year has the advantage of continuity. Bad news for the rest of the UAAP, that is.

NU Bulldogs vs. San Beda Red Lions

Don’t get me wrong: The teams in the other semifinal matchup are loaded with talented prospects, some of whom look like they can suit up for a PBA team at this very moment. 

I’ll be honest, though. It’s the cerebral battle between the two head coaches that fascinates me the most.

Jeff Let the Dogs Out

Whatever Jeff Napa is drinking as a morning stimulant, I’d like to order five cans, please.

Just when you think the Bulldogs aren’t supposed to contend, their maestro flips the narrative and gets the absolute best out of whoever is on NU’s roster. Call Napa a taskmaster or an authoritarian mentor if you wish, but the results speak for themselves: Jake Figueroa’s Mythical Five season, Jolo Manansala’s evolution as an offensive weapon, NU’s league-leading 11 wins in last year’s elimination round, the list goes on.

Figueroa and Manansala (along with court general Steve Nash Enriquez) were no longer in uniform for the NSAC, but that didn’t matter. Napa’s “next man up” mentality paid off once again as Reinhard Jumamoy stuffed the stat sheets when NU needed it the most. Against a stacked UP Fighting Maroons squad in the quarterfinals, Jumamoy pumped in a tournament-high 14 points, along with seven rebounds and four assists.

Jumamoy’s ceiling remains incredibly high, and the same can be said for PJ Palacielo and Paul Francisco. Looking like the next coming of Beau Belga, Palacielo seems intent on adding the three-ball to his arsenal, and why not? His 75.0% clip from the free throw line, which is tied for third-best FT percentage in this tournament, is a good sign that his shooting mechanics are coming along nicely. Francisco, a 3-and-D threat who was a pleasant surprise for the Bulldogs last season, hurt the Maroons with 14 points on 50.0% shooting from the field in their knockout game.

For any Pinoy fan who wants to see basketball played the right way, they need to look no further than an NU Bulldogs game. The likes of Jumamoy, Palacielo, and Francisco continue to execute Napa’s system to perfection: well-timed ball and man movement, spacing constantly on point, extra passes that look for great shots and not just good ones.

Yuri Ball Is a Thing

Speaking of coaches who play 4D chess…

Yuri Escueta has a coaching tree that is, in a word, enviable. When you’ve spent years sitting in huddles with Tab Baldwin, watching film sessions with Chot Reyes, and getting counsel from Norman Black as your consultant, you’re in an incredible spot as a basketball tactician.

Escueta, who has led the San Beda Red Lions to two NCAA titles in the past three seasons, now faces the challenge of consolidating another championship squad. Though the defending champs have lost a significant amount of firepower due to graduation (Yukien Andrada, Bryan Sajonia) and a high-profile transfer (Janti Miller), Escueta nevertheless has a lot to work with.

For starters, that Mendiola backcourt is stacked. There’s RC Calimag and Penny Estacio, a couple of savvy veterans who know Escueta’s system like the back of their hand. Even when those two guards didn’t have an explosive game against Letran in the NSAC quarterfinals, Daniel Marcelo was there to post a game-high 22 points on a 43.8% shooting clip. Right behind Marcelo in the scoring tally was Jimmy Reyes, who dropped 11 points to go along with six rebounds and four assists.

Two wings who are set to steal the spotlight in NCAA Season 102 are JC Bonzalida and Aldous Torculas. Bonzalida led all NSAC competitors in three-point shooting (55.6% from deep), while both he and Torculas are top-10 rebounders in the tournament as well. These two athletic wings are well-equipped to post solid numbers when Escueta runs his 5-out and 4-out, 1-in sets.

Predictions

All four quarterfinal matchups in the NSAC were decided by three points or less. When we get to the semifinal games, I expect close encounters to be a recurring theme.

Akowe will once again make life miserable for La Salle’s backcourt, and it’ll be interesting to see whether Topex Robinson will hound him with a small ball, up-tempo lineup or a steady diet of double-teams. Cortez and Llemit are likely to exchange baskets in the endgame, but in the end, the Green Archers have more ways to hurt the Tigers down the stretch. I’m picking La Salle over UST in their Final Four duel.

San Beda vs. NU is a battle of two well-oiled machines. Aesthetically, this playoff bout will be pleasing to see, with both teams patiently crafting their halfcourt offense. Jumamoy, Francisco, and Palacielo will come up big for the Bulldogs, but this is where Calimag and Estacio will make their presence felt as veterans who’ve been to the mountaintop. I’m picking San Beda over NU in their Final Four matchup.

The Finals, in other words, could be a summit of defending champions as La Salle takes on San Beda. Imagine the irony: Two powerhouse teams squaring off for a championship on the battlefield of Ateneo, a school that they both have historic rivalries with. Of course, who can forget that there are two Red Lions who turned green after bringing an NCAA title to Mendiola in their respective stints?

Those Lions-turned-Archers, Cortez and Miller, will both be suiting up for La Salle this weekend. And they could very well be the difference makers inside the Blue Eagle Gym. I have the Archers slaying the Lions in the 2026 NSAC Finals.