2024 PBA Semis: 5 Burning Questions
After two round robins, several buzzer beaters, and a record-breaking 1,251st outside shot, we have arrived at the PBA’s version of the final four.
That sure was an eventful Governors’ Cup, wasn’t it? Buckle up, folks: It’s not over. Not by a long stretch.
Before the opening festivities of the 2024-2025 season, we kept tabs on fascinating storylines that we’d be watching as the first conference progressed. At this point in the playoffs, we’ve seen some interesting plot developments: Rain or Shine’s accelerated growth as a contender, the new-look Ginebra proving to be way ahead of schedule, and the refusal of San Miguel and TNT (the defending Governors’ Cup champions) to yield their powerhouse status.
Now, only these four teams are left standing. Right before they lock horns in the Governors’ Cup semis, let’s take a look at five burning questions that will keep us on the edge of our seats.
How will Tim Cone’s short rotations stack up against a loaded SMB?
If there was ever a comprehensive PBA encyclopedia and you had to look up “short rotations,” a smiling picture of Earl Timothy Cone will greet you when you find that page. Whether you agree with his coaching philosophy or not, you can’t dispute the box office success that he’s had after all these years fielding six-man and seven-man rotations. (Because garbage time and “quick breather” minutes don’t really count, right?)
Try this on for size: In Ginebra’s series-clinching Game 3 win over the Meralco Bolts, five of their players logged at least 33 minutes (with Justin Brownlee unsurprisingly playing close to 41). Other than those five (Brownlee, Stephen Holt, Scottie Thompson, Maverick Ahanmisi, and Japeth Aguilar), the only other Ginebra player who could claim to have tallied significant minutes was RJ Abarrientos, who maximized his 26 minutes by having a 17-6-6 statline.
Perhaps the real question here is: Can Ginebra get away this against the San Miguel Beermen? Coach Jorge Gallent has the luxury of digging deep into a stacked bench that can field either Terrence Romeo or Jericho Cruz to backstop the third unit. In a seven-game series, depth is of paramount importance, so it will be interesting to see how Tim Cone’s classic formula will be tested by SMB’s longer rotations.
Can EJ Anosike keep up with Justin Brownlee?
Everyone, meet EJ Anosike. The SMB import, who had his first taste of PBA action in the quarterfinal series against Converge, played five years of US college hoops, averaging 16.3 points in his final year with the Cal State Fullerton Titans. Prior to his PBA stint, the East Orange, New Jersey native has played in South Korea, Belgium, and China, where he won an MVP award.
We don’t really need to run through Justin Brownlee’s profile, do we?
The discrepancy in PBA familiarity and experience could spell the difference in this battle of SMB and Ginebra imports. Justin Noypi has made a career out of finding ways to win in this league, even when the circumstances don’t seem favorable. Anosike, meanwhile, can literally count on one hand the number of times he’s suited up for a PBA game. It’s a five-on-five tussle, sure, but it could take just one import to tip the scales.
Which Rain or Shine bruiser is going to stop RHJ?
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is—there’s no other word for it—an aura. Maybe it’s because he resembles the late, great Kobe Bryant, or maybe it’s because he has a distinct southpaw style that looks so…fluid. TNT has definitely found a keeper in RHJ, and it’s not because of their propensity for initials.
Hollis-Jefferson has found a home in the PBA, but his residence is about to be gatecrashed by a slew of behemoths hell-bent on making his life difficult. As far as defensive weapons to deploy against RHJ, the Rain or Shine Elasto Painters have a full suite: hulking Aaron Fuller, reputed bad boy Beau Belga, long-limbed Santi Santillan, 16-year veteran Gabe Norwood, and Shaun “Get in the Weight Room” Ildefonso.
Can any of these players contain RHJ by his lonesome? That might be too much to ask. But can coach Yeng Guiao set up a Hollis-Jefferson committee to get things done? Now that would be fun to watch.
Can TNT or RoS tighten it up on the defensive end?
If you’re looking for teams with high-octane offense, look no further than the semifinal matchup between TNT and Rain or Shine. Both teams are equipped with scorers that can light it up from anywhere on the floor.
On the one hand, the Tropang Giga have succeeded in integrating Rey Nambatac within their system, which is bannered by Calvin Oftana, RR Pogoy and Jayson Castro. On the other hand, RoS has an abundance of young gunners and—I’m trying to find a euphemism here—not-so-young stalwarts that have the green light to shoot.
What, then, would make a difference in a battle of offensive juggernauts? That would be commitment to the defensive end. As capable as both teams are of outscoring the other, they’ll have to craft impeccable defensive plans game in and game out to contain the opposing team’s production. By giving significant minutes to defensive aces and employing defensive formations in a timely manner, TNT and RoS can gain a strong foothold in this series.
Are we getting a Game 7 in either series?
The short answer is: Yes, that’s very likely. All four teams left in the title hunt are talented and resilient enough to weather the storm of adversity, whether that comes in the form of a two-game or even a three-game deficit in a series. (Beeracle, anyone?)
Picture the two SMC teams duking it out like Coco Martin in an action-packed San Miguel commercial. Now, imagine TNT and RoS unleashing their full arsenal of offense and making it rain from just about everywhere—including, of course, the area behind the 27-foot-arc.
That sounds like two must-watch series where every team will valiantly duel till the end. No question about it: The PBA semis are about to get lit.
