Breaking Down UAAP Final Four Race Probabilities

UP has secured its place, NU is close behind, and five other teams remain in contention as the Season 89 men’s basketball tournament approaches the end of what’s been an exciting and unpredictable elimination round heading into the UAAP Final Four.

With 12 games remaining, there are 4,096 possible combinations of results. Niccolo Batara’s Final Four Race Simulator illustrates how those outcomes could shape the semifinal field and the battle for the twice-to-beat advantage.

As of November 10, UP has secured a seat in the Final Four, likely to be followed by NU at more than 99% probability. FEU and La Salle are separated by a single percentage point at 69% and 68%, respectively. UST and Ateneo each stand at 28%, while Adamson remains in contention at 7%.

These figures represent shares of possible scenarios, with every combination counted equally. It should be noted the simulator doesn’t account for team strength or matchup difficulty and should be read as a picture of the remaining possibilities, rather than a forecast of how the games will unfold.

UP leads the standings at 9-2 after clinching a semifinal berth with a feisty 82-74 victory over Ateneo on November 7. MVP candidate Veejay Pre delivered 16 points, seven rebounds, and three blocks, while Elliot Dimaculangan scored all 13 of his points in the third quarter to help overturn an early deficit. Read our feature about him here.

The Fighting Maroons had also beaten Adamson, 82-70, three days earlier, with James Payosing scoring 15 points and Noy Remogat contributing timely baskets down the stretch.

Those consecutive victories have put UP in a strong position to pursue a top-two finish for the sixth straight time under Coach Gold Monteverde.

UP finishes in the top two in 97% of the simulator’s scenarios. NU follows at 86%, giving the two leaders a substantial advantage in the race for twice-to-beat protection in the semifinals.

The Bulldogs improved to 8-3 after rallying past La Salle, 84-80, on November 8. MVP leader Reinhard Jumamoy scored 14 of his 21 points in the fourth period, while Paul Francisco’s late three-pointer against the zone helped NU regain control. Doy Dungo, DLSU’s rising star, led the Green Archers with 19 points.

Behind the leaders, FEU and La Salle are both 6-5. The Tamaraws reach the top two in 9% of scenarios, compared with 7% for the Green Archers, leaving both with a path, albeit narrow, to the twice-to-beat advantage, as well as unfinished work toward securing a semifinal berth.

FEU’s latest outing was an 86-85 loss to UST despite Jorick Bautista’s 27 points. Amiel Acido scored 23 for the Growling Tigers, whose late three-pointers helped secure a valuable victory in the playoff chase.

UST and Ateneo sit at 5-6, one game behind FEU and La Salle. They face each other on Sunday. Their identical 28% Final Four shares emphasize how important that matchup is.

Ateneo enters the closing stretch after its loss to UP, in which Kieffer Alas scored 14 points and Jared Bahay added 13 points and six assists. The Blue Eagles challenged the league leaders but could not finish the comeback.

Adamson faces the narrowest path among the remaining contenders at 4-7. After losing to UP, the Soaring Falcons fell 53-47 to UE on November 7, the result that ended the Red Warriors’ 30-game losing streak.

With three games left for each team, the remaining schedule will determine who joins UP and NU in the Final Four and likely battle them with twice-to-win disadvantages. For FEU, La Salle, UST, Ateneo, and Adamson, the closing stretch offers little room to waste opportunities.